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Why it matters
It is Google's prediction, not your actual CTR. It compares how likely your ad is to be clicked with other advertisers on the same keyword, and feeds Quality Score and Ad Rank.
A below average grade usually means the ad does not speak to what people searched, so improving it often lifts results as well as the grade.
Where to find it in Google Ads
- Open Keywords and add the Exp. CTR column.
- Read the grade: below average, average or above average.
- Compare it with the keyword's actual CTR and its ads.
- Start with the keywords that spend the most.
An example
The keyword cheap flights to Rome has a below average expected CTR. Its ads talk about the airline in general. A headline with Rome and a price lifts the grade to average within weeks.
Common mistakes
- Confusing expected CTR with the CTR column.
- Trying to improve it with clickbait that does not match the landing page.
- Ignoring it on keywords that spend most of the budget.
Checks that look at it
The audit checks Oppy runs on this, each with its own page.
Related terms
- Quality Score: Google's 1 to 10 rating of a keyword, built from expected click-through rate, ad relevance and landing page experience.
- Click-through rate (CTR): Clicks divided by impressions: the share of people who saw an ad and clicked it.
- Ad Rank: The score Google uses to decide whether an ad shows and in what position.
